Unreliable numbers: error and harm induced by bad design can be reduced by better design

Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable.     

A two-layered cross coupling control scheme for a three-dimensional motion control system

A two-layered modeling and compensation scheme is proposed to reduce the contouring error of a three-dimensional motion control system. In the proposed scheme, the contouring error model of the three-dimensional motion control system is divided into two layers: the top layer and the bottom layer. The proposed multi-layered structure of the contouring error model presents more flexibility in the control system design because the cross coupling controllers in different layers can be designed separately. In this paper, a nonlinear PI controller and a position error compensator are designed in the bottom layer in order to achieve high contouring accuracy in the XY plane, while a unilateral compensator is designed in the top layer to further reduce contouring error in the three dimensional space. Finally, experiments are performed to verify the performance of the proposed two-layered modeling and compensation scheme. Experiment results show that the designed two-layered cross coupling controller can obtain higher contouring accuracy than traditional cross coupling controller both in the XY plane and in the XYZ space.     

对《称重传感器》国标5.2.1条款

通过对《称重传感器》国标仔细研读和分析,在标准规定的三段最大允许误差限基础上,提出了五段式最大允许误差限和分段点必检的观点,从而满足了5.2.1提出的全量程、全分度的检定要求。     

Mechanism of mid-spatial-frequency waviness removal by viscoelastic polishing tool

Nanoscale roughness with ultra-precise form control can be readily achieved using compliant finishing methods such as bonnet polishing. However, their weak point lies in the difficulty of removing mid-spatial-frequency (MSF) waviness in the typical range from 0.1 to 5.0 mm wavelength. To overcome this shortcoming, a bonnet tool filled with viscoelastic fluid is developed and a comprehensive model is established to disclose its distinct removal behavior in the MSF range. The model considers tool viscoelasticity, stress distribution and workpiece topography. Experiments show high consistency with theoretical predictions, and show that MSF waviness can be effectively reduced using the proposed method.     

Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Minimization of the Theoretical Error of Input Parameters for a Vapor Permeation Apparatus

All input experimental errors for membrane flux determination were analyzed. The overall error in pressure did not largely influence the determination of membrane flux. The main contribution to errors was ascribed to flow meters and membrane thickness. The choice of an optimal operational range for input parameters led to elimination of at least 2/3 of the theoretical relative error for subsequent evaluation of the permeability of individual species. This is especially valuable for low‐permeable membranes, whereas a very low relative theoretical error can be obtained in the case of highly permeable materials.     

Reliability of design approaches for axially loaded offshore piles and its consequences with respect to the North Sea

In the near future, several offshore wind farms are planned to be built in the North Sea. Therefore, jacket and tripod constructions with mainly axially loaded piles are suitable as support structures. The current design of axial bearing resistance of these piles leads to deviant results regarding the pile resistance when different design methods are adopted. Hence, a strong deviation regarding the required pile length must be addressed. The reliability of a design method can be evaluated based on a model error which describes the quality of the considered design method by comparing measured and predicted pile bearing resistances. However, only few pile load tests are reported with regard to the boundary conditions in the North Sea. This paper presents 6 large-scale axial pile load tests which were incorporated within a new model error approach for the current design methods used for the axial bearing resistance, namely API Main Text method and cone penetration test (CPT)-based design methods, such as simplified ICP-05, offshore UWA-05, Fugro-05 and NGI-05 methods. Based on these new model errors, a reliability-based study towards the safety was conducted by performing a Monte-Carlo simulation. In addition, consequences regarding the deterministic pile design in terms of quality factors were evaluated. It is shown that the current global safety factor (GSF) prescribed and the partial safety factors are only valid for the API Main Text and the offshore UWA-05 design methods; whereas for the simplified ICP-05, Fugro-05 and NGI-05 design methods, an increase in the required embedded pile length and thus in the GSF up to 2.69, 2.95 and 3.27, respectively, should be considered to satisfy the desired safety level according to DIN EN 1990 of β = 3.8. Further, quality factors for each design method on the basis of all reliability-based design results were derived. Hence, evaluation of each design method regarding the reliability of the pile capacity prediction is possible.     

Quantitative relationship between time margin and human reliability

Operator reliability in complex systems is influenced by various performance shaping factors (PSFs). Time is a particularly important PSF; however, empirical studies of human reliability analysis (HRA) are rarely focused on modeling the effect of time PSF on human error probability (HEP). This study contributes to HRA literature by investigating the empirical relationship between time margin and HEP. Time margin is defined as the difference between the time available to complete a task and the time required to successfully complete the task, divided by the required time. We investigate and compare two models (logistic and linear) to explain HEP based on time margin. The empirical HEP data for model testing were extracted from a microworld simulator (Study 1) and a full-scope simulator (Study 2) in two existing studies relevant to procedural tasks in nuclear power plants. For Study 1, both models exhibited an acceptable, equivalent explanatory power; for Study 2, although both models exhibited an acceptable explanatory ability, the logistic model explained more variance in HEP. Our findings indicate the potential of the logistic model in explaining and predicting HEP based on time margin in time-critical tasks.     

多点驱动带式输送机功率平衡机制研究

针对多点驱动带式输送机功率不平衡降低输送效率及生产寿命问题,对多电机间的协调控制进行研究。对传统偏差耦合多电机协调控制结构进行了改进,增加了基于转速功率控制的同步误差补偿器,通过求取所有电机的平均转速和单台电机的转速差,利用PI控制器,同时结合每台电机的系统转速跟踪误差,反馈补偿到每台电机的控制回路进行多电机协调控制。仿真结果表明,系统可以在负载变化扰动的情况下有效降低各电机的同步误差,特别是对系统刚启动时负载不均衡导致的电机功率不平衡问题,改进结构可以有效实现多电机间的功率平衡分配。     

基于敏感度分析的机床关键几何误差元素辨识与评定

为了正确识别和判定机床关键几何误差元素对机床精度设计的影响,以PCV-620立式加工中心为研究对象,采用多体系统理论建立机床空间误差模型,从而得到机床几何误差元素与机床精度之间的关联函数。对空间误差模型进行灵敏度分析,获得机床各运动方向的局部灵敏度系数,完成机床关键几何误差元素的初步辨识。以局部灵敏度系数为基础,提出一种与局部灵敏度系数和工作空间中任意位置处的几何误差元素值相关的全局灵敏度系数计算方法,将其作为机床关键几何误差元素的辨识和评定标准,分析得到PCV-620立式加工中心的关键几何误差元素包含3项定位误差、3项垂直度误差和5项直线度误差。